决策之难 ( Credit: pulpolux@flickr)

今天大部分时间都花在赶活上，从早忙到傍晚。中间抽出来点时间学习自行车的一些维护和骑行知识：自行车维护大全，自行车变速的技巧，自行车链条保养及使用知识。

微风早晨搞定了境外应急保险和交通意外险（这个内容足够写一个系列的文章了），下午把手上的项目做完，就赶紧张罗打包。航空公司的规定：环球行套票的旅客可以托运两件行李，每件重量不得超过20公斤，最长边不得超过2.5米。我和微风两人的笔记本电脑连电源加在一起：6公斤；自行车裸车：12.5公斤／每辆；衣物、药品、睡袋、帐篷合计：18公斤；加上驼包、包装箱的重量，真不知是否会超过限额。傍晚时分打电话给大师，得知驮包还没有到货，需要等到明天早晨再打电话确认。后天就要出发了，到现在还有这么多未定因素，真让人有些不放心。 

到了晚饭时分，这种焦虑开始变的焦灼起来。我们开始问自己各种各样的问题：是否真的需要带山地自行车？能否带上9公斤重的折叠车？这次出行到底会怎样安排旅程？以至于到了后来，开始归宿到最根本的问题上：在这一年里，我们希望看到什么？吃完晚饭，把思路整理了一下更新到这篇文章里。从这个安排看，会有相当一部分时间会在城市近郊，剩下的则会是在各个国家公园露营或者徒步。所以应该依赖公共交通进行长途跋涉，而自行车更多是用来做短途交通以便降低出行成本。貌似折叠车可以提供的灵活性要剩过山地车跑长途的能力。也许，应该换折叠车？

如果这样的话，那可是最后时刻的大变化。

今晚准备衣物的时候看了TED上关于人类决策错误分析的演讲。自省一下，觉得自己在决定购买山地车时，没有“Vivid”（录像中采访时的原话，指的是尽量填补未来即将发生的所有未知的细节）的考虑每种选择在实际中可能遇到的问题就匆忙下了结论。以后应该改进才是。现在无论如何，先睡一觉再说。看看明天早晨起来会有怎样的决定。

下面就是这个录像的视频，里面有很多有趣的心理学实验的结论，值得一看：

在美国买卖二手车 (credit:mozul@flickr)

在前一篇《第35－37天：在美国买二手车》里面我提到了“我们的理想算盘是买一个质量过硬，不会花太多维修费的二手车，开上两个多月再转手买了。这样一来就可以剩下不少租车费用。”

现在朋友们都回复了，大概的建议是卖车花时间比较多，所以如果只在美国待上2个多月，不值得在这个方面花工夫。下面是一些回信节选。

首先，纽约出生的俄国历史学博士James指出，买卖二手车存在很多风险。美国的很多大城市，如纽约、波士顿、芝加哥、旧金山、的公共交通都非常发达，事实上没有车恐怕更为方便。

It might take time to go around looking at used cars. If you buy it from a used car lot, you will spend more money. If you buy it from an individual, you will have to call, schedule a meeting, and get to the person’s home to see the car. This might be difficult if you don’t have a car to begin with. Also, you should have the used car inspected by an auto mechanic, which also takes time and money.

With the used car, you will have to fix it if it breaks down. The cheaper the car, the more the risk of failure. Honda Civics and Toyota Corollas have a good reputation for long life but you never know. A car with over 200k miles is at risk of serious problems. A rental car agency will provide some type of roadside assistance if you run into a problem. If you break down in the middle of nowhere in a used car, it could be a real problem. You might have to have the car towed a long distance.

Also, when you try to sell the used car, you’ll probably have to sell it to a used car lot since you will not have time to sell it to an individual. The price you get will be rather low.

So you might save money with the used car if you get lucky but there is a risk that it could cost more with repairs and there may also be additional time and aggravation.

Other options are flying or taking a train or bus. Unfortunately, train travel is less convenient in the US than Europe and it is not so cheap. And long bus trips are not very comfortable. You can sometimes get cheap plane tickets, especially if you buy them early. Then again, sometimes you can get last minute deals as well.

By the way, what places are you planning to visit. Do you want to see big cities or the big open country?

In big cities like New York City, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco, you could get by without a car because there is public transportation around the city. In New York, where I grew up and spent most of my life, you are better off without a car. The subway (metro) is more convenient. Perhaps you could rent for part of the trip and get by with planes and public transport the rest of the time while visiting cities.

Adventure On Wheel的汽车回购报价

然后老朋友Walter指出，在美国买卖车辆，不仅要交手续费，还有各种保险、税收、检查维修的费用。这些费用加起来也不比租车便宜多少，所以不如不买。

Your costs for buying a used car, buying mandatory insurance and paying other miscellaneous fees minus the money you’ll recoup when you sell the car are comparable to the cost of renting. Obtaining the car will be relatively easy for you but selling it will probably be more difficult. What happens if you have to leave the US before you get a buyer? All things considered, I don’t think it’s worth the hassle to try to buy and sell in such a short time. My recommendation is for you to concentrate on “enjoying the view” and not on business matters.

在加洲圣地亚哥居住的Patrick回复说：在加洲注册新车必须加洲当地驾照，而且由于最近车市萎缩，卖车恐怕会比较难。

2. selling when done – the car market has almost dried up here recently. you may be able to buy one cheap (and hope it runs right) but finding a buyer at the end will be tricky.
3. registration – usually need a CA drivers license (at least) to register a vehicle. 

最后是Lonely Planet上面推荐的一家美国公司，可以先把车买给旅游者，等到离开时再以事先约定的价格“购回”（Buy Back）。听起来也是个很不错的选择，但是我的询价结果是所有税、保险加在一起，总开销是$4,038.35。远远超出我们的预算。费用细目在右侧可以看到。

对于我们来说，恐怕最现实的选择是把飞机、汽车、自行车和公共交通集合在一起。